Riccardo Brizzi - 22/06/2012

     The achievement of the French Socialist Party in 2012 outstrips even the “vague rose” of 1981 when the keys of the Fifth Republic were first handed to the PS under François Mitterrand. Not content with the Elysée, Matignon, Senate, nearly all the regions and the bulk of the départements, the PS and François Hollande have now also gained an absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale. Such unprecedented concentration of power – due partly to the Right gradually losing all foothold in local politics and partly to the “non-cohabitation” factor spelt by reforms introduced these last five years – lacks only one accolade: that the Left failed to reach 3/5 of the seats in Congress (Assemblée and Senate combined), with which they could have modified the text of the Constitution.

     The outcome of this general election is not only an undeniable triumph for the PS in securing an absolute majority of seats – handsomely beating the 1981 record when the count stopped at 266 – but avoids all need for gruelling bargaining with the traditionally wayward Trotsky-ite and Green allies. The PS can govern with an uncontested majority even inside the French Left. Polling 226 seats against the Left’s 346, the parliamentary Right is trounced without quarter. UMP leader Jean-François Copé and his party were hoping to contain the damage, but now see their forces in parliament slashed from 313 to 194.

     And just to rub salt in the electoral wound, a large number of party top brass were sent home, beginning with some who had campaigned hardest for a Sarkozy re-election (notably Claude Guéant, former Home Secretary, and ex-Foreign Secretary Michèle Alliot-Marie). As for the Front National – born in 1972 and never yet represented in the Assemblée (except for the 1986 general election when the new proportional system gave them 35 députés) – they scored a mixed success. They were hoping for a share of about one hundred from the three-way split at the second ballot, but had to make do with twenty; they can, however, claim the historic achievement of securing two MPs in the Assemblée (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, granddaughter of the founder, and Gilbert Collard).

     The last characteristic of this recent electoral bout is the exceptionally high rate of abstention. Though the general election always commands a lower turnout than the “presidential”, this time the contrast was glaring: over 80% went to the second-round polls on 6th May, but the 17th June figure stopped at 55.4%. This is the lowest percentage of voters ever recorded at a general election under the Fifth Republic, confirming the impression that introducing a five-year term has helped “presidentialise” the French political system. A rosy picture, clearly, for François Hollande and his government. It is the ideal scenario in time of crisis: like minds in power right the way up to the apex of State, plus a compact parliamentary majority furthering stability and decision-making.

     This forms a considerable exception to the European pattern, though it does mask one critical implication where representational dynamics are concerned. Hollande and his government will be bearing sole responsibility for the bitter cup the French will have to swallow as public finances are redressed; there will be no other political forces to share the unpopularity of desperate measures to stave off collapse of the Euro. Admittedly, the last few weeks have brought some respite on this front: hard on the heels of the Irish referendum success, we have had a Greek election confirming Athens’ attachment to the sole currency, while the G20 at Los Cabos showed a new determination by Euro-zone members to break the vicious circle bedevilling sovereign funds and banks.

     Nonetheless, the situation remains critical and saving the Euro must surely be Hollande’s first political goal. A tricky compromise has to be struck between austerity fans and advocates of growth, champions of federal integration and upholders of member-State sovereignty, countries teetering on the financial brink and others waxing relatively solid. Amid this background, the new incumbent of the Elysée enjoys the freshest and most undisputed popular support of any leader in Europe - as will be seen at once, when the Big Four, including Monti, Merkel and Rajoy, get together in Rome tomorrow.

Riccardo Brizzi
(Bologna University)