Gianfranco Baldini - 19/06/2012

     The prevailing tone of the British press is scepticism about the Greek election outcome. Coming only six weeks after a previous ballot, this was supposed to avert the catastrophe of a new deadlock. But the vote cannot be viewed as a clear signal that the country is emerging from crisis. There is no common programme uniting the pro-establishment and the pro-Euro forces (the winning side, New Democracy, and a very much scaled down Pasok): traditional opponents, they are now preparing to govern together and manage the deepening emergency. But there are no clear prospects of the country managing a comeback. Regardless of their traditional stances, on the 18th June all the main dailies dwelt on the grave problems that the Greek predicament continues to pose.

     In its editorial the Times restated its traditional line on the Greek question: only by quitting the Euro can the country haul itself up again. In that light the real doubt is whether a country gripped by five years of recession with half of its youngsters unemployed can weather another long spell of austerity measures. What continues to alarm is the contagion factor, in combination with market unpredictability. The effect of the Spanish bank bail-out vanished in a matter of days; the same is likely to happen after this election result.

     The Guardian was hardly more optimistic than the Times. To say that New Democracy won the election is somewhat tendentious: its lead over Syriza is minimal and it will have to negotiate to form a coalition with Pasok (and other lesser groups as well, no doubt). But over and above these differing percentages, what weighs most heavily after these elections is the economic prospect, which remains dire.

     Amid the many comments on election facts and figures, the Economist stressed three points: the low turn-out at the polls, the fact that Syriza nearly won, and the collapse of Pasok. Four Greeks out of ten deemed it pointless to go and vote. Again, Tsipras’ radical left-wing coalition surely benefited by the socialist slump (down to 12% when they have averaged more than 40% these last fifty years). Many pensioners and public employees who traditionally sided with the party now being led by Venizelos no doubt went to swell Syriza’s 27%, the idea being that renegotiating terms with Brussels was the only way of regaining sovereignty and eluding the regime of austerity. On the eve of polling Venizelos was hoping a broad coalition government might include Syriza, but Tsipras seems to have ruled out any deal of the kind.

     For his part, Cameron took part in a leaders’ video-conference before setting off for the G20 in Mexico. He hoped the election result would enable Greece to remain in the Euro. He urged the parties not to waste any time in forming a new government, and not to query the terms of the fiscal compact – in which, note, Great Britain takes no direct part.

     The Independent argued that the European repercussions of the Greek ballot should not be over-stated. Although Merkel is being criticised for undue rigidity both by the United States and by France, it is quite clear that Germany is not the only one in Europe favouring draconian measures in Greece. As the Daily Telegraph editorial points out, the real problem is that the crisis extends far beyond Greece, which is just the epicentre. One should avoid falling into either of the two opposite orthodoxies, the total free marketers and the raise-taxation faction. Our current crisis shows that neither approach fits this particular bill. A lot more prolonged reflection is called for, in the awareness that this is a definitive end of epoch. The era of baby-boom welfare is firmly behind us, but no politician has the guts to say so. All countries have bemoaned the fact that certain privileges and salaries are no longer sustainable. All the Greek elites, political and economic, are jointly responsible for ruinous and corrupt mismanagement of the system, based on personal favours and arrant waste of resources. If the lower classes are by and large the ones who will have to foot the bill for these years of crisis, we can hardly be surprised if extremism burgeons.

Gianfranco Baldini
(Bologna University)