Gianfranco Baldini - 12/04/2012

     Eastertide in Belfast brings some important anniversaries. The first is the launching of the Titanic which was built in the town’s shipyards. Two more regard the historical conflict between republican nationalists – seeking to remove the frontier with Dublin – and the unionists with their loyalty to Westminster – who have always been stronger in political, economic and demographic terms. Easter 1916 saw the beginning of the IRA revolt against London, while Good Friday 1998 marked the peace agreement that put an end to the Troubles. Events that are interlinked, therefore. Arguments there have been over the cost of the museum and the tone of the commemoration to celebrate the building of that Leviathan which foundered on an iceberg on April 14th 1912.

     The two religious communities will be joined in commemoration, and all is quiet in expectation. On Good Friday the Northern Irish press (along with the rest of the United Kingdom) glossed over the enormous progress (despite some lingering perplexities) surrounding cohabitation in this divided city and in Ulster at large. On Easter Monday some dissident republicans in Derry (part of the pockets of residual activism claiming descent from the IRA) dressed up in hoods to call to mind events of 1916, and promised further hostilities. The six arrests on the strength of this follow on an Easter marked by détente. If one goes simply on numbers, there is little ground for pessimism. Bitter enemies agreed to share governing roles in the consociative form of self-government set up in 1998-99. True, the Northern Irish party system - the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Sinn Fein (SF) – has over the years seen radical groups going beyond the two moderate parties that conducted peace talks at the time.

     But the DUP and SF that put up key members of government thanks to their electoral successes have moderated their tone and adopted positions they were opposed to fifteen years ago. The devolution government set up in 1999 has twice been suspended by London, but ever since it was restored some five years ago there seems to have been a prevailing state of “fragile calm”. The latest data on the nearly 500 political prisoners released (as of late 2011) show far less back-sliding than obtains with ordinary criminals (6% vs 48%). Not that violent episodes have disappeared altogether: some think the climate of austerity may enflame tempers once more. On both fronts, nationalist and unionist, class background seems to have no connection with a propensity for violence.

     The republican dissidents are largely supported by the more secularised militants of the middle age-bracket (25-55) and not so much by youngsters or the older generation. What continues to fuel republican groups seems to be a mixture of nationalism and socialism: ideology counting far more than social exclusion. In the course of 2009-10 there were no less than 129 episodes of violence, what with bombs that went off, bombs that failed, and shooting episodes. Last year too there were various incidents during the ‘Orange’ marches. On the unionist side, for nearly 20 years violence has nearly always been sectarian with inside settling of scores; among republicans there is still strong resentment of the police. One of the most controversial points in the peace process is the fact the Sinn Fein recognised the new Northern Irish police force – the replacement to the much contested Royal Ulster Constabulary.

     The latest murder in the smouldering conflict took place one year ago and involved a policeman. This very Good Friday, again, four policemen were suspended when hostile remarks about the nationalists were intercepted on their phones. Despite devolution, the Northern Irish economy continues to depend decisively on transfers from London. Two markers underscore the point: 75% of the regional GDP depends on the public sector, while per capita expenditure is 20% higher than in the rest of the UK. Today the crisis in Dublin gives a new twist to Cameron’s comment that the region’s dependence on the public sector resembles that of certain satellite states in the former Soviet Union. While prospects of political reunification of the island were in practice laid to rest at the 1998 agreement, nowadays the economic attraction of the south is anyway considerably diminished. It is hard to say who is worse off, north or south.

     Dublin is getting ready for the 31st May referendum on the fiscal compact. They can no longer block the whole ratification process as they did in 2008 with their first No to Lisbon. But if the Noes prevail, they will either have to vote again or give up their entitlement to the European Stability Mechanism tools which will swing into action in July. At present some 70% of Irishmen still wish for a united island. South of the border they thus look with interest on goings-on in the north. Though Cameron pulled the UK out of the European agreement, he has put up money to bail out Dublin banks. At this time of anniversaries and austerity the destiny of the Northern Irish community lies in its ability to isolate the violent once and for all, and concentrate energy on the many innovation schemes hatched in recent years.

Gianfranco Baldini
(Bologna University)